A prediction enginefor follow-through.
You know what you want to change. The harder question is what's stopping you.
If you can name five goals you've half-started,
and one you're avoiding right now, this is built for you.
Here's what that looks like in practice. Same goal, two different contexts. On the left, the goal stands alone. On the right, it sits inside a Behavior Design Stack: the same goal connected up to the bigger why behind it, and down to one concrete next step you can take today. That connection, a goal linked to motivation above and lived action below, is where progress actually comes from. Same goal, very different odds.
| Factor | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Desire | 2 | Who actually wants to go to the gym? |
| Awareness | 3 | No trigger, nothing to remind me |
| Resistance | 7 | Gym, commute, gear, changing, sweating |
| Time | 6 | An hour plus, start to finish |
The score is (Desire × Awareness) / (Resistance × Time), so it ranges from about 0.01 to 100. Higher means the design is working for you, not against you.
The gym goal jumped from 0.14 to 15.75 without changing the goal itself, just the design around it.
The problem isn't discipline. It's four factors (mnemonic = DART) that show up every time you stall.
They look different for every goal, but the underlying structure is always the same. The Progress Formula scores each one so you can see which are working for you, which are working against you, and what knobs to turn to boost your odds of success.
- Desire
- How badly you want it.
- Awareness
- The odds you'll remember to do the next action at a moment when you could reasonably do so.
- Resistance
- What's in the way. Friction, energy cost, environmental obstacles.
- Time
- How long the next step actually takes.
Is this for you?
- ✓Motivated but stuck in cycles of trying, falling off, and starting over
- ✓Overwhelmed by options and unsure where to focus first
- ✓Someone who suspects willpower is not actually the problem
- ✓Willing to run small experiments and update based on what you observe
- ✓Looking for a diagnostic tool, not a coach who tells you what to do
- ✕Looking for a rigid daily program or step-by-step curriculum to follow
- ✕Hoping for a tool that guarantees results without reflection or iteration
- ✕Not willing to honestly rate your own desire, friction, and follow-through
- ✕Expecting a quick fix with no behavioral redesign required
Common questions
A score of 2.5 or above is a positive signal. The behavior, as currently designed, has reasonable follow-through odds. It is directional, not a guarantee.
A low score (below 1) is not a warning to be careful. It is a strong signal that the plan, as currently structured, is unlikely to succeed. Not because you have weak willpower, but because the design itself is working against you.
Two moves. Get more specific about the very next step you can actually take right now. And connect the goal to the deeper reason behind it, because the thing you initially say you want is rarely what you actually want.
Yes. The factors apply to any behavior: professional routines, sleep, exercise, creative work, communication habits.
Stop guessing. Start designing.
Map your options, score your readiness, and fix the hidden constraints before you start a plan that was never going to work.